Why does this simple fit run forever?

Question

The following fit runs forever on my laptop; how to speed up?

Bdata = {{1.17, 400}, {2, 800}, {4, 1100}, {6, 1350}, {8, 1500}};

B = ParametricNDSolveValue[{b'[t] == kappa (1 - b[t]/1500), b[1.17] == b0}, b, {t, 0, 11}, {b0, kappa}]

J[b0_?NumericQ, kappa_?NumericQ] := Total@Map[(B[b0, kappa][#[[1]]] - #[[2]])^2 &, Bdata]

mini = NMinimize[{J[b0, kappa], 350 < b0 < 450, 0 < kappa < 1}, {b0, kappa}]

Answer 1

Remove the parameter constraints and you'll get a good fit

mini = NMinimize[{J[b0, kappa] }, {b0, kappa}]
(*{13054.2, {b0 -> 426.03, kappa -> 621.01}}*)

Show[{ListPlot[Bdata], Plot[B[b0, kappa][x] /. mini[[2]], {x, 0, 10}]}]

Answer 2

(* nlf = NonlinearModelFit[Bdata,  
  B[b0, kappa]@t, {{b0, 350, 450}, {kappa, 0, 1}}, t] *)

nlf = NonlinearModelFit[Bdata, B[b0, kappa]@t, {b0, kappa}, t]

Show[ListPlot[Bdata, PlotStyle -> Red], Plot[nlf@t, {t, 0, 11}]]

nlf["BestFitParameters"]

{b0 -> 426.03, kappa -> 621.009}.

nlf["ParameterConfidenceIntervals"]

{{237.826, 614.234}, {364.814, 877.205}}.

Answer 3

$Version

(* "14.0.0 for Mac OS X ARM (64-bit) (December 13, 2023)" *)

Clear["Global`*"]

Bdata = {{117/100, 400}, {2, 800}, {4, 1100}, {6, 1350}, {8, 1500}};

The differential equation can be solved exactly.

B = DSolveValue[{b'[t] == kappa  (1 - b[t]/1500), b[117/100] == b0}, b[t], 
   t] // Simplify

(* 1500 + (-1500 + b0) E^((kappa (117 - 100 t))/150000) *)

(nlm = NonlinearModelFit[Bdata, B, {kappa, b0}, t])["BestFitParameters"]

(* {kappa -> 621.01, b0 -> 426.03} *)

Show[ListPlot[Bdata], Plot[nlm[x], {x, 0, 10}]]