Questions tagged [markov-chains]

Questions that deal with modeling and simulating random processes which switch between states under the Markov assumptions.

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Unexpected PDF in `FirstPassageTimeDistribution`

I am new to Markov Processes, and while learning the discrete Markov chain with the following matrix $$P=\begin{bmatrix}\frac{1}{3} & \frac{2}{3} & 0 & 0 \\ \frac{1}{2} & \frac{1}{2} &...
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1answer
80 views

Graphing Markov chains / decision trees

I'm looking to graph a simple one-way Markov chain, which is effectively a decision tree with transitions probabilities. One way I've got this working in here in an MWE, here's a simple Markov chain ...
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15 views

Why the `ReachabilityProbability` of `DiscreteMarkovProcess` does not work with non-numeric parameters?

Most properties of Markov Processes work with non-numeric parameters, but this stops being true for ReachabilityProbability For example ...
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1answer
912 views

Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm - Significantly slower than Python

I would like to code a Metropolis Hasting algorithm and thought I would get the general scheme of things going with a toy example. I think I got it running but my Mathematica code runs significantly ...
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2answers
58 views

How to add the weights to the transition graph of a Markov chain?

The following working program uses Graph and Markov Chain ...
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2answers
116 views

Compute the stationary distribution of a large transition matrix

I am doing some simulations for simple random walks on directed random graphs. From a graph of n vertices, I get a n by ...
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2answers
314 views

Generate an ε-machine graph from transition probability matrices

I am trying to generate this type of graphic: see Fig.1a from https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.3587. This process is associated with two transition matrices $$ T^{(0)} = \begin{pmatrix} 0&p&0\\ 1&...
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2answers
198 views

How to convert a weighted, directed graph into a discrete Markov transition matrix

Suppose that I have matrix matT1 at time t and matT2 at time t+1: ...
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1answer
51 views

Mathematica demonstration for Markov convergence tracking effect on input distributions in 2D (or 3D)

Is there a mathematica demo that demonstrates the convergence of Markov chains in 2 dimensions, and possibly 3, as follows? In 2 dimensions, start with the interval determined by $x + y = 1$ for ...
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1answer
44 views

Expression with Boole

Let us have an expression for example, this: 2 (-1 + p) (3 - 4 p + 2 p^2) Boole[\[FormalX] == 1] - 9 (1 - 2 p + p^2) Boole[\[FormalX] == 2] ... For the whole ...
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3answers
450 views

Slow computation of recursive sequences

I want to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the following recursive system: ...
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1answer
28 views

Problem with solving a system of equations based on a matrix

I am trying to solve a system of equations based on a matrix in order to find the "stationary" matrix. the code I've written should break the matrix down into a system of equations such that some ...
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128 views

Fit Markov Chain

Assume a simple Markov Chain with the transition matrix ...
4
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1answer
237 views

The probability of reaching the absorbing states from a particular transient state?

Can I use the data available from MarkovProcessProperties to compute the probability of reaching each of the absorbing states from a particular transient state? In an earlier post, kglr showed a ...
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1answer
103 views

Finding Steady States that Meet Additional Constraints

I've written a function that returns the steady state given a regular, column-stochastic matrix. I want to use it to solve a larger problem, finding steady states that satisfy certain conditions. The ...
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1answer
113 views

How to simulate a Markov chain from the output of two other Markov chains?

I have a Markov chain defined by the output of two other Markov chains as time passes. (i.e., Z = X + Y). How do I program such a Markov chain in Mathematica?
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1answer
110 views

Plotting absorbing state probabilities from state 1

I have the following transition matrix: ...
22
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3answers
2k views

Efficient way to simulate thousands of Markov chains

I am currently trying to simulate relaxation of a protein population while maintaining the stochastic properties of the system. For this, I used a Markov chain to describe the temporal evolution of ...
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4answers
240 views

Constructing higher order transition probability matrix

Recently I asked a question here about how to construct a transition probability matrix given the following list: ...
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3answers
371 views

Constructing transition probability matrix

I have the following list: ...
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2answers
483 views

How to make a cow smaller (in BubbleChart3D plot)

I've been using random walk Metropolis to sample from the (unnormalised distribution) which is defined as $p(r)\propto e^{-100 r}$, where $r$ is the perpendicular distance of a point in 3D space from ...
3
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1answer
363 views

Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm Problem

I've been trying to implement the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for a while but there seems to be something weird going on. This algorithm does not need as much of the statistics to understand, and ...
5
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1answer
169 views

FindShortestPath in Markov Transition Matrix

So I have a part of transition matrix like this. ...
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1answer
324 views

Deriving 68% confidence level for each parameter after MCMC

I used the MCMC package https://github.com/joshburkart/mathematica-mcmc to find the best parameters for model of Massive Gravity. Now I need to find the confidence 68% for each of those parameters and ...
3
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1answer
203 views

MCMC problem for Acoustic Scale Cosmology

I'm using this MCMC Mathematica package https://github.com/joshburkart/mathematica-mcmc to do a MCMC on number of different data sets for a problem. I'm almost done but I have one problem. Whenever I ...
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1answer
75 views

Evaluated To Non-Numerical Values Error using MCMC package Mathematica Via NIntegrate

I'm using this package https://github.com/joshburkart/mathematica-mcmc and am trying to evaluate the following: ...
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0answers
116 views

Error using MCMC package Mathematica Via NIntegrate

I'm using this package https://github.com/joshburkart/mathematica-mcmc and am trying to evaluate the following: ...
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0answers
41 views

What's going on with this FirstPassageTimeDistribution performance quirk?

Observe: ...
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0answers
685 views

Estimate process parameters of geometric Brownian motion with a two-state Markov chain

I have the following sequence. Consider a model that follows a geometric Brownian motion whose drift switches between two different regimes representing the up trend and down trend. The regime ...
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0answers
200 views

Why is this non-vectorized NDSolve faster than vectorized?

I'm trying to get a feeling for stochastic population models. A simple starting place is a birth-death process whose deterministic limit is the logistic equation. The idea is to model the probability <...
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1answer
107 views

Issue with EdgeLabels

I want to reproduce Shannon's telegraph Markov chain from A Mathematical Theory of Communication. EdgeLabels isn't doing the trick here: ...
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0answers
80 views

Generalization of DiscreteMarkovProcess?

I am trying to create a Markov chain using the initial state of a probabilistic cellular automaton, that is a list of length 8, as the first argument of the function ...
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0answers
76 views

Problem/bug with `RandomVariate` and `FirstPassageTimeDistribution`?

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238 views

Training Hidden Markov Models using Mathematica

I have created a Hidden Markov Process with an initial probability vector, emission and transmission matrices. ...
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0answers
371 views

Hidden Markov Model: emissions probabilities dependent on observable parameter

I need to fit an HMM where the emission probabilities (ep) are discrete and dependent on a known variable quantity. E.g.: Imagine a daily time series of binary emissions ("1" or "2"). I suppose an ...
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1answer
245 views

Nonlinear Markov chain (numerical simulation)

Suppose you have a linear Markov process, and you can write it as x(t+1) = Ax(t). Here x is the vector of values, and A is the transition matrix. Since this is linear, it can be solved analytically, ...
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1answer
129 views

Use (network) graph as vertex

I have a Markov chain with graphs as the states. Basically how one network structure would evolve to another in the next period. To avoid confusion, I'll use the term "network" instead of "graph". I ...
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0answers
345 views

What's the algorithm behind markov classifier in Classify function for text classification?

https://www.wolfram.com/mathematica/new-in-10/highly-automated-machine-learning/find-which-author-wrote-a-text.html The above url show the use of Classify ...
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2answers
165 views

Using Mathematica to calculate expected time to absorption [closed]

I am trying to solve a standard ETA on a birth-death process with $n$ states $\in \{0,\cdots,n-1\}$ where state $n-1$ is absorbing. Also $\mu_i$ is the expected time to absorption starting at state $i$...
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1answer
241 views

Part specification error with InterpolatingFunction when generating a Markov Modulated Poisson Process

I want to create a Markov Modulated Poisson Process, where the arrival rates created by the states of a ContinuousMarkovProcess are fed into an ...
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2answers
159 views

Question RE DiscreteMarkovProcess Graph Labels

I'm trying to label the arc's of my Markov chain with symbols like $\alpha$, $\beta$, etc., to show how the Markov chain looks abstractly. So, I did this... ...
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0answers
95 views

What do the default shapes/colors in DiscreteMarkovProcess Graph mean?

In making markov chains, I know how to do that, but I am curious as to what the different colors, and shapes of the vertexes in the graph output mean. as example; ...
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112 views

Fit a custom process to a data: inhomogeneous 2-state Markov chain

I would like to fit a custom process - a time inhomogeneous 2-state Markov chain, to data. The time inhomogeneity is a result of the transition probabilities varying sinusoidally through time with a ...
4
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2answers
624 views

Time inhomogeneous Markov Chain in Mathematica

I would like to create a discrete 2-state Markov process, where the switching probabilities in the transition matrix vary with time. I can currently do the following, which creates a process with ...
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1answer
816 views

Code efficiency improvement needed solving problem 499 in Project Euler

I am trying to solve https://projecteuler.net/problem=499 by constructing a transition matrix and finding its steady state. Here is my code: ...
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3answers
228 views

Problem with a Markov's Matrix

I recently discovered the Markov process. To simplify my work, I use the following code taken from the DiscreteMarkovProcess documentation: ...
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1answer
548 views

Where can I find a good tutorial for stochastic modeling using Mathematica?

I am a newbie in Mathematica and I aim to use Mathematica mostly for stochastic modeling (to develop and analyze models in evolutionary biology). Note that I am not necessarily a great mathematician ...
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1answer
437 views

My Baum-Welch algorithm is very slow. Is it due to Mathematica?

I've also posted this question here, since I'm not sure which community is more adequate for this type of question. I've programmed imperatively the Baum-Welch algorithm for a 2 state hidden Markov ...
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0answers
405 views

Calculate the power spectral density of a Markov chain

I would like to calculate the symbolic power spectral density of a two state Markov process with a symbolic transition matrix characterised by two parameters. I have tried the code below, but it ...
3
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2answers
260 views

Expectation of a composite Markov-Gamma distribution

In a model I have a discrete two-state first order Markov process, defined by a (2x2) transition matrix with two free parameters. If the first state occurs then the process outputs zero for that ...