# Tagged Questions

Questions about performing probabilistic calculations, especially those concerned with the Mathematica commands Probability, Expectation and the various functions related to distributions such as NormalDistribution, CDF, PDF etc.

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### appropriate MMA notation for trivial Bayes theorem calculation

Just for fun, following along with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Introductory_example in MMA. Here is the notation that I used. ...
187 views

### Integration of linked PDFs over probability simplex

I'm trying to integrate the following expression: f[a1,p1+p2+p3+p4]*f[a2,p2+p3+p4]*f[a3,p3+p4]*f[a4,p4] Where ...
318 views

### Bilateral Laplace Transform in Mathematica (to be used with Moment Generating Functions)?

I am trying to solve a linear ODE for a Kolmogorov forward equation to get a stationary distribution of a random variable. The easiest approach may be to transform the ODE with a two-sided Laplace ...
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### Find fit of an experimental PDF

After quite some struggle, I managed to put up a code that is syntaxically correct. The goal is to find the parameters for a gamma distribution that best match experimental data. The data is a set of ...
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### Optimization of custom probability distibutions?

Consider the two tests: Timing[Do[RandomVariate[NormalDistribution[0.5, 0.3]], {200}]] {0.001188, Null} ...
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### Plot contours for 3d histograms

I have a data set which is a list of pairs. From this I can easily make a 3d histogram with Histogram3D[data] or a smoothed ...
62 views

### calculate variance of conditional sum of Normals

Let $\quad W \sim N(\mu_0, \sigma_0^2), \quad X_1 \sim N(\mu_1, \sigma_1^2), \quad X_2 \sim N(\mu_2, \sigma_2^2)$ denote independent random variables, and let $c$ denote a constant. I want to find ...
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### Dice expirements and random variable? [migrated]

Suppose I define a random variable X such that it represents the sum on the dice thrown. Now there are two ways to do the experiment 1) I use 2 dice, note their individual Xi (R.V) and then find ...
137 views

### Deriving a Rayleigh distribution

When I tried to find this Rayleigh distribution Mathematica couldn't come with an answer: ...
117 views

### Why are Binormal and Multinormal giving me different results when I use NExpectation?

fixed in 10.1 (windows) Binormal and Multinormal can both be used to represent normal random variables: ...
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### How to Fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to data in Mathematica

I'd like to know how to fit a Generalized Pareto distribution in Mathematica to implement the Peak Over Threshold method for tail estimation of operational risk losses. Does anybody have a toy example ...
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### Find confidence interval for negative binomial using Mathematica

I would like to find the exact 95% confidence intervals on the mean of a negative binomial random variable using Mathematica. It is possible to approximate the distribution using a gamma/normal, but ...
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### How to get probabilities for multinomial & hypergeometric distribution ranges more quickly?

I often need to calculate the probability of a result from a multinomial distribution falling within some range, e.g., the maximum of the categories having an upper bound, or a lower bound for the ...
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### Extrapolation of area for a 2D integration

I have a set of points distributed almost uniformly in a certain area of a 2D plane as follow: An example of data points (orange) data = {{0.919443, 1.68921*10^-22}, {0.262277, ...
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### Probability problem — Rube Goldberg solution?

A user posted this question on StackOverflow which was closed as off topic: 3 people are playing a game with a standard 52 card deck. Each player is given 2 cards each, possible cards and their ...
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### Mixture / Hierarchical Distribution from Conditional

How does Mathematica handle Hierarchical distributions. For example, if I have X|Y ~ Poisson(Z) Y ~ Exp(lambda) Z ~ Normal(0,1) First, of all, the distribution of X is only given conditionally and ...
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### probability calculation with two independent normal RVs

I don't understand why Probability[X < Y, {X \[Distributed] NormalDistribution[0, 1], Y \[Distributed] NormalDistribution[0, 1]}] gives 1/2 while we know ...
64 views

### Find a probability with random variates from the same distribution

I'm trying to find Probability involving 3 random variates from the same distribution, but Mathematica does not seem to solve it. ...
48 views

### Central Limit Theorem - solve for a const, given probability

I hope this is not a very complicated question, but I have problems finding the answer. Quite often, I need to calculate something like this: $P(-a<\bar{x}<a) = p$, where $\bar{x}$ refers to the ...
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### In Mathematica, how to calculate marginal probability of continuous conditional distributions? [duplicate]

I have random variables A and B, given by Beta distributions. This can be easily defined in Mathematica. I have a conditional probability P(C|A,B) which I custom-design as a function. The function ...
52 views

### There is an higher probability to win with 3 dices versus 2 or with 4 dices versus 3?

In Dice wars, you gain a territory rolling the dices you have in an adiacent territory (almost like Risk game). If I have more options to choose, there are more chances to win with 3 dices versus 2 ...
52 views

### probability going outside 1 (due to optimization violation of constraint)

I am working on an optimization, which involves the following density: ...
Inspired by the probability calculation here, I am trying to solve a little general one: \mathbb{P} (\sum_{i=1}^{m-1} A_i + \sum_{i=1}^{m} S_i < L < \sum_{i=1}^{m} A_i + \sum_{i=1}^{m+1} ...